Type-2 fuzzy chance-constrained linear fractional programming model for a water resource management system: A case study of Taiyuan city, China

Abstract

Abstract Uncertainties arising from extreme climate events and human activities pose a challenge to the efficient allocation of water resources. In this study, a type-2 fuzzy chance-constrained linear fractional programming (T2F-CCLFP) is developed to support the water resource management system under uncertainty by incorporating type-2 fuzzy sets, chance-constrained programming, and fractional programming into a comprehensive multi-objective optimization framework. The model enables the trade-off between economic, social, and environmental sustainability and provides water supply solutions associated with different levels of fuzzy uncertainty and risk of violating constraints. The T2F-CCLFP model is applied to Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, China, to support its water resource management. Results reveal that: (i) the industrial structure is transitioning toward diverse industries from energy and heavy industry dominance; (ii) external water transfer will be the major water-supply sources for the city in the future, accounting for 55 and 50% of the total water supply in 2025 and 2030, respectively; (iii) the water-supply security of the city is enhanced by provoking the utilization of reclaimed water (the annual growth rate is 13.9%). The results are helpful for managers in adjusting the current industry structure, enhancing water supply security, and contributing to the sustainable development of socio-economic and water systems.