Climate change and its effects on the streamflow of an Andean river basin with volcanic activity

Abstract

Abstract We use a Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model to simulate streamflow in the Gualí River Basin. The model's performance is assessed using metrics such as percentage of bias (PBIAS), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), RMSE–observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) to indicate good performance. Furthermore, we analyze projections of precipitation and streamflow using several global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). Despite the uncertainties and coarse resolution, our results show that increases in the mean streamflow and significantly decreasing trends in projected precipitation and streamflow are observed from 2015 to 2099 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Furthermore, our findings suggest an increase in long-term mid-flow and low-flow. Moreover, this work provides a methodological framework for hydrological modeling in small tropical river basins, by incorporating data from GCMs while raising concerns and caveats. This study offers valuable insights into the potential effects of climate change on streamflow in an Andean river basin characterized by volcanic activity and significant human impacts. The findings reported here provide useful information for future decisions related to water supply for the social, environmental, and productive sectors in the seven towns within the catchment.