Assessing the utility of hybrid hydrological modeling over complex conditions of the Chitral basin, Pakistan

Abstract

Abstract Streamflow forecasting holds pivotal importance for planning and decision-making in the domain of water resources management. The Chitral basin in Pakistan is characterized by high altitude and glaciated terrain. Simulating streamflows in this type of region is challenging due to complex orography and uncertain climate data. This complexity persuaded us to explore three frameworks (soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), artificial neural network (ANN), and hybrid of SWAT–ANN (H2)) for simulating the Chitral river under two different climate datasets (observed climatology (OC) and reconciled gridded climatology (RGC)) to give all six model combinations. Model evaluation was done first by indices (Nash–Sutcliff efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, coefficient of determination, percent bias, and root mean square error) based on which we further assigned scores to models reflecting their performance during calibration and validation epochs. The research revealed that ANN-RGC stood first with 53 points, followed by H2-RGC (50 points) and SWAT-RGC (45 points). Trailing behind in the fourth and fifth positions were SWAT-RGC and SWAT-OC (26 points each), respectively, while ANN-OC finished last (22 points). In addition, this study proposed a bias scaling approach for simulation biases resulting in reduction in recession and baseflow biases and specifically improved low-scoring models. Despite ANN's superiority over conventional models, it could be of limited utility in uncertain or data-scarce conditions.