Spatial varying and co-occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin: a multivariate approach

Abstract

Abstract This study explored co-occurring climate-scale changes across the physioclimatically heterogeneous Tapi River basin (TRB) for baseline (1991–2020) and future periods (2021–2100). We used a novel multivariate framework comprising multi-model ensembles of bias-corrected rainfall and temperature from five global climate models (CMIP-5), 12 climate indices (six for each variable), and principal component analysis (PCA). The univariate assessment showed statistically significant warming of 1.1–1.8 °C (1.5–4.0 °C) under RCP-4.5 (RCP-8.5) scenarios. The Middle Tapi basin showed a substantial shift towards a wetter climate regime in the future. The multivariate assessment of spatially varying climate indices resulted in four significant principal components (PCs). The relative evaluation of these PCs showed that nearly 41.6% (47.0%) of the TRB is vulnerable to the transition of the current climatic patterns to the dry–warm (wet–warm) regime under RCP-8.5 (RCP-4.5) in the near (distant) future. On the optimistic side, under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5, 53.0% and 69.8% of the TRB displayed signs of uniform temporal distribution with wet rainfall regimes and profound warming towards the end of the 21st century, respectively. The study outcomes would help to devise policies for regional sustainability and adopt mitigation measures to enhance resiliency in a changing climate.