Impact assessment of land use/land cover changes on surface runoff characteristics in the Shetrunji River Basin using the SWAT model

Abstract

Abstract Land use/land cover (LU/LC) change has a considerable effect on the runoff characteristics of any watershed. LU/LC change studies are necessary for policymakers to identify the challenges and adopt the course of action such as soil and water conservation measures for improvement. The current research is undertaken for the upper Shetrunji River basin using a hydrological model linked with GIS. Input data like LU/LC, meteorological, and soil elements are necessary to execute watershed modeling. The model was calibrated and validated in SWAT-CUP using the SUFI-2 algorithm. The data from 2000 to 2010 were utilized for calibration, whereas the data from 2011 to 2020 were used for validation with a three-year warm-up period from 1997 to 1999. LU/LC change detection has been accomplished using ERDAS IMAGINE 2015 via a supervised classification approach. Close agreement was obtained between simulated and observed streamflow data during model calibration (NSE = 0.74 and R2 = 0.78) and validation (NSE = 0.70 and R2 = 0.73). LU/LC change detection shows that agricultural, urban, and water body areas increased between 2000–2010 and 2010–2020, and forest areas increased in 2010 and decreased in 2020. Thus, it is concluded that the change in LU/LC significantly influenced the runoff of the upper Shetrunji River basin.