ARIMA-Based forecasting of monthly rainfall in Mandi district, Himachal Pradesh

Abstract

ABSTRACT To anticipate monthly rainfall time series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling was performed using R studio. For a period of 30 years, the monthly rainfall data (in mm) were gathered for eight localities in the Mandi district of Himachal Pradesh: Bharol, Chachiyot, Jogindernagar, Karsog, Kataula, Mandi, Sarkaghat, and Sundernagar. The augmented Dickey–Fuller test was performed to determine whether the rainfall data were steady before applying the ARIMA model. The minimal values of the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, autocorrelation function, and partial autocorrelation function were used to select the best models. The best fit was determined to be ARIMA (0,0,2) (2,1,0)12 for five stations and ARIMA (0,0,0) (1,1,0)12 for the remaining three stations. A box test is performed to validate the ARIMA model and verify the autocorrelation in the data. Using the ARIMA model, forecasts are made for the 10 years (2021–2030). The validity and performance of the ARIMA models were evaluated using error statistics (mean absolute error = 34.65, root-mean-square error = 33.58, and R2 = 0.93). The projected data's mean and standard deviation were close to the actual data. As a result, the ARIMA model's monthly rainfall prediction parameters were satisfactory.