Hybrid MARMA-NARX model for flow forecasting based on the large-scale climate signals, sea-surface temperatures, and rainfall

Abstract

Abstract In this study, to reflect the effect of large-scale climate signals on runoff, these indices are accompanied with rainfall (the most effective local factor in runoff) as the inputs of the hybrid model. Where one-year in advance forecasting of reservoir inflows can provide data to have an optimal reservoir operation, reports show we still need more accurate models which include all effective parameters to have more forecasting accuracy than traditional linear models (ARMA and ARIMA). Thus, hybridization of models was employed for improving the accuracy of flow forecasting. Moreover, various forecasters including large-scale climate signals were tested to promote forecasting. This paper focuses on testing MARMA-NARX hybrid model to enhance the accuracy of monthly inflow forecasts. Since the inflow in different periods of the year has in linear and non-linear trends, the hybrid model is proposed as a means of combining linear model, monthly autoregressive moving average (MARMA), and non-linear model, nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous (NARX) inputs to upgrade the accuracy of flow forecasting. The results of the study showed enhanced forecasting accuracy through using the hybrid model.