Recent evidence on the illicit cigarette trade in Latin America

Author:

Drope Jeffrey12,Rodriguez-Iglesias Germán1,Stoklosa Michal3,Szklo André4

Affiliation:

1. University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, United States of America

2. jdrope@uic.edu

3. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

4. Instituto Nacional de Câncer José Alencar Gomes da Silva, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract

The tobacco industry continues to present the illicit trade of tobacco products as a reason to slow, stop, or reverse tobacco control efforts in Latin America, including increasing tobacco excise taxes. In most cases, industry estimates of illicit trade, usually non-transparent and flawed, dwarf those of independent, rigorous research. Often, independent studies find that the levels of illicit trade are mostly non-consequential or easily manageable (<12%). Almost always, industry findings grossly overestimate the illicit market. Fortunately, a burgeoning empirical literature in the region—including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Uruguay—is illuminating the genuine levels and nature of this trade, typically employing gap analysis that compares tax-paid sales to consumption and/or pack inspection studies using packs shown by smokers in surveys or discarded in the streets or garbage. Additional research in countries including Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Paraguay examines supply chains to help identify the illicit sources. This research is already helping governments to address any real problems with illicit trade and to reassure stakeholders that tobacco control efforts should be strengthened, not diminished.

Publisher

Pan American Health Organization

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Reference43 articles.

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3. John RM, Ross H. Illicit cigarette sales in Indian cities: findings from a retail survey. Tobacco Control. 2018;27:684–8.

4. Saenz de Miera Juarez B, Reynales-Shigematsu LM, Stoklosa M, Welding K, Drope J. Measuring the illicit cigarette market in Mexico: a cross validation of two methodologies. Tobacco Control. 2021;30:125–31. Available from: https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/tobaccocontrol/early/2020/03/31/tobaccocontrol-2019-055449.full.pdf. Accessed 24 March 2022.

5. Biz A. O Comércio Ilícito de Cigarros no Brasil: Uma Análise. Rio de Janeiro: PUC-Rio, Undergraduate thesis; 2010. Available from: http://www.econ.puc-rio.br/uploads/adm/trabalhos/files/Aline_Navega_Biz.pdf.

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