Temporal trends and spatial clusters of gastric cancer mortality in Brazil

Abstract

To identify nationwide temporal trends and spatial patterns of gastric cancer–related mortality in Brazil.

An ecological study was performed using death certificates registered from 2000 to 2019 in which gastric cancer was recorded as any cause of death (an underlying or associated cause). Trends over time were assessed using joinpoint regression models. Spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were identified by Kulldorff’s space–time scan statistics to identify high-risk areas.

In 276 897/22 663 091 (1.22%) death certificates gastric cancer was recorded as any cause of death. Age-adjusted gastric cancer–related mortality increased significantly over time (annual percentage change [APC]: 0.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.5 to 0.8). The increase in mortality was more pronounced in the less-developed North and Northeast Regions (North Region, APC: 3.1, 95% CI: 2.7 to 3.5; Northeast Region, APC: 3.1, 95% CI: 2.5 to 3.7). Eight spatiotemporally associated high-risk clusters of gastric cancer–related mortality were identified in the North, South, Northeast and Central–West Regions, as well as a major cluster covering a wide geographical range in the South and Southeast Regions of Brazil during the first years of the study period (2000 to 2009).

More recently, during 2010 to 2019, clusters of gastric cancer have been identified in the Northeast Region. The nationwide increase in mortality in this analysis of 20 years of data highlights the persistently high burden of gastric cancer in Brazil, especially in socioeconomically disadvantaged regions. The identification of these areas where the population is at high risk for gastric cancer–related mortality emphasizes the need to develop effective and intersectoral control measures.