Población en riesgo de pobreza y/o exclusión social. Propuesta metodológica para la estimación del indicador AROPE en los municipios de Andalucía

Abstract

This work presents a methodological proposal for the continuous estimation of the AROPE indicator (Eurostat) –and its components on income and employment– about people at risk of poverty and/or social exclusion in Andalusian municipalities. The predictive power of this method is assessed by an estimation exercise for this indicator during the period 2016-2018, which shows how the methodology provides accurate estimations of the aggregated indicator values for Andalusia and its evolution over time. The results reveal how aggregated data hide not just high heterogeneity of the estimated municipal values but also significant territorial redistribution of poverty and/or social exclusion during the study period.