State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example of Ukraine

Abstract

Based on personal participation in the special border operation "Polissia", the author's team analyzed the actions of the Ukrainian government in response to the potential risks of the migration crisis on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in 2021. The experience of migration crisis response of the EU member states (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia) in 2021 was analyzed, as well as the experience of migration crisis response in previous years (Balkan route). Proposals for improving organizational aspects of conducting special border operations in order to overcome migration crises at the state border have been substantiated. In addition, a methodology has been developed that allows detecting the changes of the situation in the border zone of national security, determining the time periods of increase (decrease) of the degree of aggravation, forecasting the time period of transition of the situation from the level of "aggravation" to the level of "threat". In the conclusions it is proposed to develop a concept paper in the form of a strategy for the security and stability of state borders, which will include ways of solving the material and technical problems of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.