Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021

Published:2021-07-08 Issue:27 Volume:26 Page:
ISSN:1560-7917
Container-title:Eurosurveillance
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Ito Kimihito¹^ORCID,Piantham Chayada²^ORCID,Nishiura Hiroshi³^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. International Institute for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan

2. Graduate School of Infectious Diseases, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan

3. Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

Abstract

Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (RRI) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval distributions, RRI varies from 1.20–1.32 for R.1, 1.34–1.58 for Alpha, and 1.70–2.30 for Delta. The frequency of Delta is expected to take over Alpha in Japan before 23 July 2021.

Publisher

European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)

Subject

Virology,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Epidemiology

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