Prediction of Remission in a French Early Arthritis Cohort by RAPID3 and other Core Data Set Measures, but Not by the Absence of Rheumatoid Factor, Anticitrullinated Protein Antibodies, or Radiographic Erosions

Abstract

Objective.To identify baseline variables that predict remission according to different criteria in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a comprehensive French ESPOIR early arthritis database.Methods.Individual variables and indices at baseline were analyzed in 664 patients for capacity to predict remission either 6 or 12 months later according to 4 criteria that require a formal joint count: the American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism Boolean criteria, the Simplified Disease Activity Index, the Clinical Disease Activity Index, and the 28-joint Disease Activity Score; and 2 remission criteria that do not require a formal joint count: the Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3 (RAPID3) and the RAPID3 ≤ 3 + swollen joint, using univariate and multivariate logistic regressions.Results.Remission was predicted significantly 6 and/or 12 months later in 26.8%–51.4% of patients, according to all 6 criteria by younger age, low index scores, and better status for the 6/7 clinical RA core dataset measures: tender joint count, swollen joint count (SJC), physician’s global estimate, patient self-report Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) physical function, pain, and patient’s global estimate. Remission was not predicted by the absence of “poor prognosis RA” indicators, rheumatoid factor (RF), anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA), or radiographic erosions. In multivariate regressions that included only 3 variables, low HAQ function predicted remission by all criteria as effectively as SJC, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, or C-reactive protein.Conclusion.Younger age and 6 core dataset clinical measures, but not the absence of traditional “poor prognosis RA” indicators, RF, ACPA, or radiographic erosions, predicted remission according to 6 criteria, including 2 without a formal joint count.