Serum Uric Acid and the Risk of Incident and Recurrent Gout: A Systematic Review

Abstract

Objective.Lowering serum uric acid (SUA) levels can essentially cure gout; however, this is not widely practiced. To summarize epidemiologic evidence related to this causal link, we conducted a systematic review of the published literature reporting the association between SUA level and incident and recurrent gout (i.e., gout flares).Methods.We systematically searched Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews using separate search strategies for incident gout and recurrent gout. We screened 646 abstracts to identify 8 eligible articles reporting gout incidence and 913 abstracts to identify 18 articles reporting recurrent gout.Results.For both gout incidence and recurrence, a graded trend was observed where the risk was increased with higher SUA levels. Gout incidence rates per 1000 person-years from population-based studies ranged from 0.8 (SUA ≤ 6 mg/dl) to 70.2 cases (SUA ≥ 10 mg/dl). Recurrent gout risk in clinical cohorts ranged from 12% (SUA ≤ 6 mg/dl) to 61% (SUA ≥ 9 mg/dl) among those receiving urate-lowering therapy (ULT), and 3.7% (SUA 6–7 mg/dl) to 61% (SUA > 9.3 mg/dl) after successful ULT. Retrospective database studies also showed a graded relationship, although the strength of the association was weaker. Studies reporting mean flares or time-to-flare according to SUA showed similar findings.Conclusion.This systematic review confirms that higher SUA levels are associated with increased risk of incident and recurrent gout in a graded manner. Although few prospective cohorts have evaluated incident and recurrent gout according to SUA, the existing evidence underscores the need to treat to SUA targets, as recommended by the American College of Rheumatology and the European League Against Rheumatism.