Nomograms based on inflammatory biomarkers for predicting tumor grade and micro-vascular invasion in stage I/II hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Background: Increasing evidences reveal that inflammation plays a critical role in tumorigenesis and progression. We aimed to develop the nomograms based on inflammatory biomarkers to predict micro-vascular invasion (MVI) and tumor grade in stage I/II hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: A retrospective cohort of 627 patients with stage I/II HCC between January 2007 and December 2014 was included in the study. Logistic regression was performed to identify the independent risk factors of tumor grade and MVI. The significant predictors including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (dNLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), tumor volume age, and tumor size were subsequently incorporated to build the nomograms. The prediction accuracies of the nomograms were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: The independent risk factors for tumor grade were NLR, dNLR, and tumor volume (P<0.001, P=0.001, and P<0.001, respectively), which were assembled into tumor grade nomogram. MVI nomogram was developed by dNLR, LMR, age, and tumor size (P<0.001, P<0.001, P<0.001, and P=0.001, respectively) which were the independent predictors for MVI. The area under the ROC curve of nomograms for predicting tumor grade and MVI were 0.727 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.690–0.761) and 0.839 (95% CI: 0.808–0.867), respectively. Patients who had a nomogram score of less than 100 and 79 were considered to have high possibility of moderate grade and have low risks of MVI presence, respectively. Conclusion: We successfully developed nomograms predicting tumor grade and MVI based on inflammatory biomarkers with high accuracy, leading to a rational therapeutic choice for stage I/II HCC.