The Use of Risk Evolution Models in Evaluation of Risk Levels for Diseases Developing under the Influence of Factors of Occupational Environment and Work Process

Abstract

Background: The analysis of temporal changes in the value of occupational risk for workers based on evolutionary models helps predict long-term effects of occupational factors and develop effective preventive measures. The objective of our study was to test application of evolutionary modeling to assessing the relationship between prevalence rates of occupational and occupation-related diseases in workers induced by various factors of occupational environment and work processes. Materials and methods: We made epidemiological assessment of the association between workers’ health and working conditions in compliance with the requirements of Guidelines R 2.2.1766–03. The parameters of paired mathematical models constructed for different exposure levels were used for risk evolution models accounting for accumulation of functional changes attributed to external causes. Results and discussion: The results of risk evolution modeling showed that 20 years of high occupational noise exposures exceeding the maximum permissible level posed a very high risk of developing sensorineural hearing loss by the age of 48, this risk being high and moderate in the age ranges of 36–47 and 24–35, respectively. According to the same model, 20-year-long high occupational vibration exposures exceeding the maximum permissible level posed a moderate risk of developing diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue in workers aged 46–65. The risk of developing diseases of the nervous system posed by xylene exposures below the maximum permissible level was assessed as negligible.