Long-Term Prevalence Trends in Children in Relation to Environmental Issues in the Astrakhan Region

Abstract

Introduction: One of the tasks of preventive medicine and hygiene is to study the relationship between environmental factors and human health. The purpose of the study was to compare pediatric prevalence rates in the Astrakhan Region and in the city of Astrakhan in 2007–2020 with those for the Russian Federation in relation to per capita emissions of environmental pollutants. Materials and methods: We used official statistics on the size of population, prevalence rates in children, and emissions of air pollutants in the Astrakhan Region for the years under study. Methods of mathematical and statistical analysis, construction of trend lines and calculation of linear regression equations using built-in Microsoft Excel software were applied. An online Spearman’s Rho Calculator was used to compute correlation coefficients. Results: The prevalence in children showed a statistical downward trend both in Astrakhan and in the Astrakhan Region as a whole with its rates being, on average, 7.8 % and 15.6 % lower than the national ones, respectively. The Spearman’s Rho (rs) showed the presence of a high and direct statistically significant correlation between per capita emissions of air pollutants and disease prevalence in the child population in the Astrakhan Region (rs = 0.73; p = 0.003) with a moderate direct, yet insignificant, correlation for the Russian Federation as a whole (rs = 0.32; p = 0.41) and null correlation for the data computed for the of Astrakhan (rs = 0.26; p = 0.32). Conclusion: Along with the predicted decreasing trend in prevalence in the pediatric population, we established a statistical relationship between local environmental problems and children’s health, which should be taken into account in the development of disease prevention programs.