Forecast of Import Substitution Effectiveness and Its Impact on Economic Growth in Russia

Abstract

In conditions of the extreme increase in threats to Russia’s national interests and unprecedented sanctions pressure, import substitution is an unambiguous priority of the country’s economic development. At the same time, the need for significant and reliable forecast of import substitution effectiveness and its impact on economic growth in Russia comes to the fore. This forecast allows to do variant calculations of economy and its industries requirement of the import substitution; to determine, based on the actual or required indicators of the scale and economy’s growth rate, the rational structure of the country’s foreign trade turnover, the optimal ratio between domestic production, exports and imports, the level of employment and household income both at the macrolevel and in the context of individual industries and commodity groups, taking into account the real situation in the economy. The import substitution effectiveness was calculated with using multicomponent analysis; the forecast of the import substitution effectiveness and its impact on economic growth was carried out using the regression modeling method in two directions: 1) forecast the values of complex indicator of import substitution, leading to a given GDP growth; 2) a point forecast of the import substitution effectiveness parameters, ensuring the strengthening of its positive impact on economic growth in Russia, solving the optimization problem. The results can be used in the activities of public administration aimed at adjusting the country’s socio-economic development plans and effective import substitution program development.