The Integral Method for Predicting the Risk of Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis

Abstract

The objective: development of a method for determining the individual risk of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) before endoscopic intervention.Subjects and Methods. A prospective observational study of the results of therapeutic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) was performed in 1,210 patients. The primary end point was the development of PEP. Multiple regression logistic analysis was used to determine the risk of developing PEP.Results. A model of independent variables was determined, which significantly (p = 0.0001) affected the risk of developing PEP. Based on the results of the logistic analysis, regression coefficients were calculated for all significant patient-dependent factors (gender, age, preoperative level of amylasemia and bilirubinemia, and nature of the underlying disease). The risk of PEP decreased in men (by 47.5%), with an increase in the age of patients (for 1 year by 2.3%) and bilirubin (with an increase of 1 μmol/l by 0.3%) but increased with an increase in amylase activity blood serum (by 0.7% for each 1 U/l). A formula has been developed to assess the individual risk of PEP at the stage of preparing a patient for therapeutic ERCP.Conclusion. Analysis of patient-dependent factors makes it possible to reliably determine the risk of developing PEP. It was determined that a female gender, young age (under 40 years old), sphincter of Oddi dysfunction increased the risk of PEP, while a male sex, stenting of the main pancreatic duct, and jaundice reduced this risk. The use of the proposed formula will help predict a significant (p = 0.0001) degree of risk of PEP before performing primary therapeutic ERCP in a particular patient.