MODELING THE ANNUAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF DAILY AIR TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

MODELING THE ANNUAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF DAILY AIR TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS

Published:2022-09-01 Issue: Volume: Page:
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Container-title:materials of the international scientific and methodological seminar "PHYSICAL BASIS OF MODERN SCIENCE-INTENSIVE TECHNOLOGIES"
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Author:

Krutskih Yuliya¹,Kamalova Nina²,Evsikova Natal'ya³

Affiliation:

1. Voronezh State University of Forestry and Technologies named after G.F. Morozov

2. FSBE Institution of Higher Education Voronezh State University of Forestry and Technologies named after G.F. Morozov

3. FGBOU VO «Voronezhskiy gosudarstvennyy lesotehnicheskiy universitet imeni G.F. Morozova»

Abstract

The probability of occurrence of catastrophic situations in forest areas is determined by the processes of their interaction with the environment. Therefore, the formation of models for monitoring the state of forests is impossible without a systematic analysis of the dynamics of the main climatic characteristics: precipitation and temperature throughout the year. The paper proposes a statistical model for the dynamics of the probability of observing the practical absence of daily temperature fluctuations during the year. For statistical modeling of temperature data by months, the time series method was used. The applied approach can become a convenient tool in systems for predicting catastrophic situations in ecological systems.

Publisher

FSBE Institution of Higher Education Voronezh State University of Forestry and Technologies named after G.F. Morozov

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