Characteristics and observed seasonal changes in Cold Air Outbreaks in Hungary using station data (1901–2020)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigated Cold Air Outbreaks (CAOs) in Hungary using temperature data from ten weather stations located near populous Hungarian cities. Our main motivation for performing this research was the fact that in this rapidly changing climate, these events continue to represent a threat to infrastructure and human life, such as the outbreaks experienced in early 2021 (e.g., Texas, USA) and late 2022 (Winter Storm Elliott). In addition, no comprehensive study of CAOs in Hungary has been conducted using station data. The definition of CAO used in this paper is that the daily mean temperature had to be in the lower 10th percentile of the daily climatology for five consecutive days, and we allowed a maximum two-day gap between periods matching the criteria above, after which we merged events together. We found that the number of CAOs in Hungary decreased considerably in recent decades (due to increasing mean temperatures), and the climates of the investigated stations became increasingly homogenous. Developing our understanding of CAOs around the world is important because, due to climate change, their seasonal distribution may change in a way that negatively impacts our life and economy.