Risk of Short-Term Prostate-Specific Antigen Recurrence and Failure in Patients With Prostate Cancer

Abstract

ImportanceA shorter time interval to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure is associated with worse clinical outcomes; however, specific factors defining this state remain unknown.ObjectiveTo evaluate the factors of a short time interval to PSA failure in order to identify patients for treatment escalation randomized clinical trials.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial was a secondary analysis of the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute 05-043 trial and included 350 patients with nonmetastatic unfavorable risk prostate cancer (PC).InterventionsPatients were randomized 1:1 to receive androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and radiation therapy (RT) plus docetaxel vs ADT and RT.Main Outcomes and MeasuresCumulative incidence rates curves of PSA failure, defined as PSA nadir plus 2 ng/mL or initiation of salvage therapies, and the Fine and Gray competing risks regression was used to assess the prognostic association between these factors and time to PSA failure.ResultsThe study included 350 males who primarily had a good performance status (330 [94.3%] with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score of 0), median (range) age of 66 (43-86) years, with 167 (46.6%) having Gleason scores of 8 to 10, and 195 (55.2%) presenting with a baseline PSA of more than 10 ng/mL. After a median (IQR) follow-up of 10.2 (8.0-11.4) years, having a PSA level of 10 ng/mL to 20 ng/mL (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR], 1.98; 95% CI, 1.28-3.07; P = .002) and a Gleason score of 8 to 10 (sHR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.63-3.99; P < .001) were associated with a shorter time to PSA failure, and older age (sHR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72-0.93; P = .002) was associated with reduced risk for PSA failure after adjusting for other baseline clinical factors. The high-risk category, defined by these 3 factors, was associated with a shorter time to PSA failure (sHR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.84-3.93; P < .001).Conclusions and RelevanceIn this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial of males with unfavorable risk PC, young age, PSA of 10 ng/mL or more, and a Gleason score of 8 to 10 estimated a shorter time to PSA failure. A subgroup of males at very high-risk for early PSA failure, as defined by our study, may benefit from treatment escalation with androgen receptor signaling inhibitors or cytotoxic chemotherapy and should be the subject of a prospective randomized clinical trial.Trial RegistrationNCT00116142