THE GRAIN MARKET IN RETROSPECT AND OUTLOOK: A GLOBAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

The article justifies the relevance of studying the state and development trends of the global grain market in the context of existing challenges related to the Russian-Ukrainian war and threats to global food security in general. An analysis of the market's indicators, including demand, supply, production volumes, and grain reserves, has been conducted, which indicates a clear upward trend. The qualitative characteristics of this dynamic have been assessed by determining the trends in changes in two key indicators of the global grain market - the global stock-to-use ratio and the ratio of reserves of major exporters to their utilization. The market structure has been characterized by the relative weight of major cereal crops in the world, such as wheat, maize, and rice. The relative weight of other cereal crops in the global market is insignificant, reducing their impact on the market's key parameters accordingly. Within the scope of the study, trends in changes in the markets of major cereal crops have been identified. The dynamics of indicators for individual cereal crops have shown somewhat different trends in each of the markets. Challenges in the external environment and dynamic shifts in supply and demand have also contributed to high price volatility in the grain market. The dynamics of global grain prices have been assessed based on the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) food price indices. The study of the price dynamics in the global grain market has revealed that price volatility is largely caused by seasonal fluctuations in crop yields in different parts of the world, grain logistics organization, and dumping. Based on the analysis conducted, trends and prospects for the development of the global grain market in the context of deepening external challenges and threats have been determined.