Mechanical Models of Fault-Slip Rates in the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, California

Abstract

Abstract The Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of Southern California host a geometrically complex network of seismically active faults with a range of slip senses. Here, we present 3D mechanical models of this region that are driven by the total Pacific-North American plate motion and slip on the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Garlock faults. Based on these boundary conditions, we solve for the full 3D distribution of slip rates on 83 faults and compare model slip-rate predictions to long-term slip-rate data from Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3) as well as individual geologic point-based estimates of long-term slip. About 46/68 (68%) model-predicted average fault-slip rates are within the UCERF3 slip-rate ranges with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.03 mm/yr to the nearest (upper or lower) UCERF3 limit. The largest slip-rate discrepancies occur on the San Gabriel, Pine Mountain, and Big Pine faults, which may be presently inactive. We find that removing these three faults (i.e., assuming they are inactive) results in an improvement in all goodness-of-fit metrics with 47/63 (75%) UCERF3 slip rates fit with an RMSE of 0.40 mm/yr. We also compare this same model to existing point-based long-term slip-rate estimates and fit 39/69 (60%) with an RMSE of 0.79 mm/yr. The ability for the model to fit independent slip-rate data implies that strike slip along the “Big Bend” of the San Andreas fault (in conjunction with slip on the Garlock and San Jacinto faults) along with total plate motion is sufficient to reproduce both reverse-slip rates throughout the Transverse ranges and strike-slip rates in the Peninsular Ranges regions without additional driving forces needed. Overall, the models provide slip rates and distributions for 83 faults, including faults that currently do not have geologic slip-rate estimates and/or may not produce interseismic deformation.