Weak Predictability of Rupture Growth Evidenced by P Waves: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning

Author:

Wang Jiang12ORCID,Ma Qiang12ORCID,Tao Dongwang12ORCID,Xie Quancai12ORCID,Ren Xiuyan3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. 1Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin, China

2. 2Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation, Ministry of Emergency Management, Harbin, China

3. 3College of Geo-exploration Sciences and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China

Abstract

ABSTRACT The time-evolving growth behavior during the early phase of an earthquake rupture and when distinguishable features arise for events of different sizes are critical issues for real-time seismology. These issues are related to the key concept of rupture predictability, which directly determines the warning time and the potential of earthquake early warning systems. P waves carry the temporal information of rupture development, which provides us with an important clue to investigate and understand the source physical process in the early stage of the rupture. In this article, for 36 shallow, moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes (5.0≤Mw≤9.1) that occurred in Japan and China, we systematically assess and quantify the temporal evolution of the P-wave velocity amplitude (V-env) and the characteristic period (τc). The initial growth rate and the secondary evolution parameters are extracted to investigate the main features of the early rupture behavior. Our results show that the V-env exhibits distinguishable growth features after a similar steep rise affected by propagation attenuation for earthquakes of different sizes. Near the distinguishable points, the bell-shaped fluctuations are generally observed in the τc curves, and the fluctuation amplitude is positively correlated with the final magnitude. The distinct evolution of P waves radiated from earthquakes of different magnitudes occurs earlier than one-half of the rupture duration, which constitutes new evidence supporting the weak predictability of ruptures. Finally, we discuss the implications for the physical source mechanism and earthquake early warning.

Publisher

Seismological Society of America (SSA)

Subject

Geochemistry and Petrology,Geophysics

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3