A Myth of Preferred Days of Strong Earthquakes?

Author:

Kossobokov Vladimir G.1,Panza Giuliano F.2

Affiliation:

1. Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IEPT RAS), Moscow, Russia

2. Department of Mathematics and Geosciences (DMG) and the Abdus Salam ICTP/ESP section, Trieste, Italy

Abstract

Abstract Existing evidence on the origin times of magnitude M≥7.5 earthquakes worldwide, based on authoritative earthquake catalogs, does not permit rejection of the null hypotheses of random coincidental occurrence at any time during the Earth or the Moon cycles. Specifically, the nonparametric Kuiper test statistics for cyclic variations applied to seismic evidence resulting from the empirical distributions of the M≥7.5 earthquake origin time Julian day (JD) and the Moon phase (MP) do not allow the rejection of the null hypotheses of uniform distributions within the corresponding cycles. On the other hand, the same Kuiper test permits the rejection of the null hypotheses of the same chance of occurrence on any JD or MP for strong magnitude M≥6.0 earthquakes, at least for the past four decades of presumably the best-earthquake determinations and, in particular, for earthquakes in the Northern Hemisphere (with an evident seasonal pattern). The nonparametric two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistics suggest no preferred distances to the Moon at the occurrence of large earthquakes. All of this contributes, to the results of solid statistical testing of hypotheses, for a better understanding of the complex seismic response of the Earth’s lithosphere to periodic gravitational loading.

Publisher

Seismological Society of America (SSA)

Subject

Geophysics

Cited by 8 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3