Conservation of rural human resources in Ukraine: modelling the relationship between migration and economic development

Abstract

Purpose. The article aims to identify the relationship between migration (in the context of two channels – (1) human resource outflows and (2) remittance inflow) in rural areas and the economic development; justification of measures of preserving rural human resources in rural areas in Ukraine. Methodology / approach. The methodological tools of the study are the construction of lag econometric models that allow identifying the influence of migration flows on key parameters of economic development, as well as the calculation of elasticity coefficients. Results. It is determined that high international migration in Ukraine, especially from territories with a lower quality of life, remote from regional centers, leads to increase human resource outflow in rural areas, which accelerates the rate of their socio-economic degradation and extinction, respectively, does not contribute to balanced spatial development. The positive impact of migration on economic development has been identified, in particular, migration contributes to improving the financial well-being of households, is an instrument for accumulating investment capital and savings, developing small businesses, and enhancing financial inclusion. It is proved that to preserve the human resources of rural areas in Ukraine, it is necessary to implement a proactive policy aimed at balancing the labour market of communities, simplifying the principles of conducting and reducing the risks of small business, increasing the young re-emigration, improving investment capital, increasing the competitiveness of the educational sphere at the local level. Originality / scientific novelty. A new scientific and methodological approach to assessing the dependence of the parameters of development of rural areas on migration processes due to two channels – human resources and remittance has been developed, complementary analysis of which makes it possible to identify the complex impact of migration on the socio-economic development of territories, optimal and critical volumes of migration according to various structural characteristics, migration gaps in the development of the economic system and social spheres of rural areas depending on the level of migration activity and the effectiveness of using the potential of remittance. Practical value / implications. The practical significance of the research results lies in the development of tools for forecasting and planning the state policy of preserving human resources of rural areas in Ukraine, depending on migration aspirations and the purposefulness of remittance.