Milk price modeling and forecasting

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the methodological approach to forecasting the selling price of milk, which is produced and sold by agricultural producers in the Ukrainian market of raw milk. Methodology / approach. The basis of the methodological approach is the construction of models describing the change in sales prices for milk and certain types of dairy products (pasteurized milk with a fat content of up to 2.5 %, sour cream with a fat content of up to 15.0 %, soft fat cheeses) during 2017–2019 and forecasting the sale price of milk for a period of 6 months. The ARIMA model was used in the forecast, taking into account the degree of correlation between changes in the price of milk and the analyzed types of dairy products. The time factor (time lag) of one month and the share of milk in the price of the finished dairy products were also considered. Results. The forecast results allowed us to determine milk sales prices for January–June 2020. In addition, the study showed the lack of a single direction in their change during the bias period, namely – increase in milk sales price during February–January 2020 and its reduction till June 2020. The obtained forecast values of milk selling price, considering the share of milk in the selling price of finished dairy products, were adjusted according to the time lag. Originality / scientific novelty. Novelty is an algorithm for using a methodical approach to forecasting the purchase price of milk, taking into account the correlation between milk prices and prices for certain types of dairy products; time lag and the share of milk prices in the sale price of finished dairy products. Practical value / implications. Comparison of the obtained forecast data of the price with the actual prices of milk sales indicated the existence of insignificant differences between them, proving the adequacy of the proposed methodological approach to be used in forecasting of milk prices at the enterprises.