Risk assessment of shock periods and investment attractiveness of agroholdings of Ukraine

Abstract

Purpose. This paper deals with analysis and assessment of the risks specific to the agricultural business under conditions of macroeconomic uncertainty associated with the war unleashed by russia on the territory of Ukraine. The performed study included the stability analysis of the agricultural holdings in Ukraine before and after the shock period, and their investment attractiveness. Methodology / approach. In the research process, a combination of methods of risk analysis of Ukrainian agricultural holdings during the shock period and the speed of recovery of their investment attractiveness was proposed. Daily stock rates of selected agricultural holdings served as information support for calculations. The sample was subdivided into three periods: before the shock, which was characterized by a certain level of stability; the shock period caused by the war; and the recovery period after the shock. The study was carried out with the use of the shock depth indication and the recovery level following the shock, the risk analysis based on VaR and CVaR approach and forecasting of further liquidity curve of the agricultural producers based on Holt-Winters’ model. Results. The depth of the fall in the shock period (Sd) and the level of recovery after the shock period (Rl) for agricultural holdings of Ukraine have been established. The Sd indicator ranged from -44 % to 71 %, and Rl averaged 56 %, which confirmed the insignificant level of recovery of capitalization of agricultural holdings. Positive trends of overcoming the shock period were established for all studied agricultural holdings of Ukraine. A significant difference in the liquidity of assets of agricultural holdings was revealed. Originality / scientific novelty. The originality of the research is the approbation of a set of methods that allow simultaneously considering various features of the manifestation of risks caused by russian full-scale armed aggression. Practical value / implications. The practical value of the research lies in the determination of the negative impact of the risks of shock periods and the assessment of the investment attractiveness of agricultural holdings, which can be used for decision-making. The proposed approaches can be recommended for the analysis of other agricultural enterprises and for potential investors in other periods of significant changes and in the post-war period.