Modelling the Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Nigeria: The Moderating Effects of Oil and Non-oil Revenue

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish transparency, long-term fiscal planning, ensuring budget compliance measures, and an independent fiscal oversight body for consistency in fiscal expansion strategies, strengthening revenue collection, capacity building, and political commitment, restructuring budget allocation to prioritize capital expenditure over recurrent expenditure while ensuring accountability and transparency in project implementation, channelling resources into viable ventures, and improving fiscal management to reduce corruption and ensure efficient capital project execution.