Manchester City’s Start of the Offensive Phase: A Lag-Sequential Analysis

Abstract

Research on the playing patterns of Manchester City, particularly under Pep Guardiola's guidance, is limited. Existing studies do not investigate the associations between the offensive phase's initial actions (interceptions, tackles, defensive behavior followed by a pass) and other elements of the attacking phase, such as pitch space positions (zones) and goals. This study goes beyond subjective observation and applies lag-sequential analysis on Manchester City's 2019-2020 UEFA Champions League group stage matches. Behaviors were recorded using the SoccerEye Observational Instrument and software. The data was analyzed using the Sequential Data Interchange Standard-Generalized Sequential Querier (SDIS-GSEQ) and Microsoft Excel. Of the 417 offensive phase starts, 30.7% began with an interception, 8.2% with a tackle, and 29.5% with defensive behavior followed by a pass. Zone 5 (central mid-defensive sector) had a positive association (z=4.1) with interceptions, while zone 8 (central mid-offensive sector) had a positive association (z=2.67) with defensive behavior followed by a pass. Zones 3 (right defensive sector) and 12 (right offensive sector) showed a positive association with tackles (z=2.96 and z=3.36, respectively). Interceptions (z=-2.61) and defensive behavior followed by a pass (z=-4.46) were inhibited in zone 2. Starting an attack with a tackle may also result in a goal in Lags 7 and 8 (z=2.15, z=2.54, respectively).