Demographic Strategies of the Russian Rural Population: Intersubjective Nonlinearity Versus Economic Viability

Abstract

The intersubjective demographic strategies of modern families and settlements appear to be nonlinear, negatively affecting traditional solutions’ efficiency in spurring demographic growth. This study seeks to determine how external circumstances influenced the formation and changes of fundamental collective ideas. The authors present the results from a model of demographic strategies that analyzed 1,544 rural settlements in Central Russia from 1959 to 1989, which was a period of accelerated urbanization and demographic transition. A fractal model was used to reconstruct social intentions. Control factors for each settlement were estimated based on indicators that reflect rural settlements’ material and technical conditions, economic, medical, and social service development levels, and the availability of attractive migration goals. More archaic communities responded to natural growth stimulation in a linear and relatively predictable fashion, but new competencies, needs, and opportunities appeared as communities developed socially and economically. Many counterintuitive effects influenced the evolution of modernized communities. In particular, the migration aspirations of rural youth led to a postponement in births and a drop in the birth rate despite an increased quality of life. An intense migratory influx into hub settlements also contributed to a decrease in the birth rate among the local population.