Trends and Variability of Wheat Crop in Pakistan

Abstract

The main focus of the study was to analyze trends and variability of wheat crop in Pakistan. Semi-log trend model was used to find trends and growth rate in area, yield and production of wheat crop whereas the variability was measured by Cuddy-Della Valle index of variability. The findings of the study illustrate that wheat area in Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan was increased over the time whereas cultivated area of wheat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was marginally decreased during 1981-85 to 2011-15. The results show that there was substantial increase in wheat yield and production in all four provinces of Pakistan. The increase in wheat yield may due to the adoption of new varieties of wheat in the country over the time. It was also concluded from the results that area and yield of wheat in Baluchistan recorded the highest degree of variability whereas in Punjab province area and yield of wheat crop were noticed the lowest degree of variability. Similarly, the maximum variability in wheat production was recorded for Baluchistan province followed by Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab. Mostly the variability in wheat production was due to the variability in wheat area and their yield.