Analysing the Effects of Atmospheric Teleconnections on Streamflow Regime in the Eastern Black Sea Basin in Türkiye

Abstract

Analysing the variations in hydrological cycle components is essential for water resources planning and management. In this study, the relationship between the streamflow data belonging to five discharge gauging stations in the Eastern Black Sea Basin in Türkiye and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) was investigated. For this purpose, Spearman’s correlation test, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and relative importance analysis were used. Accordingly, Spearman’s correlation coefficients were calculated between raw streamflow data, decomposed streamflow data via EEMD and atmospheric teleconnections. Then, the relative importance analysis was applied to determine the atmospheric teleconnections’ influences on streamflow data. The findings showed that the relationship between raw streamflow data and atmospheric teleconnections is generally more significant and negative in the winter and spring. Furthermore, it was observed that the linkage between the decomposed streamflow data and atmospheric teleconnections could differentiate. Although no significant correlation between atmospheric teleconnections and raw streamflow data was detected in some months, significant correlations were detected between atmospheric teleconnections and decomposed streamflow data. This reveals the importance of examining the relationship between atmospheric teleconnections and streamflow data for different periods. The relative importance analysis revealed that the influence of atmospheric teleconnections on streamflow data could change from station to station and from component to component. This study showed that investigating the effects of atmospheric teleconnections on streamflow data for different components and periods is important.