Decision approach for program risk analysis and management: a case study

Abstract

Purpose: This paper aims to discuss the basis on which the program risk analysis currently sustains, identifies the fragility of some of its main pillars, and proposes an alternative to the tactic level of analysis. Methodology/Approach: This work is an exploratory a case study based on decision analysis methods, a framework is proposed to make easier the selection of the main risks that should be managed. A mechanism that is relatively more complex, but more efficient for this analysis task. Findings: The proposed mechanism has several advantages over the approach traditionally adopted and does not inherit the biases arising from this widespread methodology. Research Limitation/implication: Applying this methodology to real complete programs would bring a more realistic notion of the costs and levels of complexity required for its implementation. Originality/Value of paper: Program risk management seeks to improve the likelihood of achieving the strategic goals of organizations through the treatment of threats and opportunities. However, the traditional technique used in project risk analysis has relevant weaknesses at the program level. The proposed method can also perform the same tasks but by investing an additional effort, its effectiveness can be increased.