Use of fleuriet model for forecasting and evaluating municipal electoral results in a brazilian state

Abstract

Objective: Verify the relation between the variables in the Fleuriet model and the electoral result given by the exchange or maintenance of the party of the prefectures under analysis. Methodology: Through logistic regression it is possible to explain or predict the probability of the occurrence of the event under analysis, such event discussed here refers to the exchange of the party, which is a dummy variable that assumes a value of 1 when there is an exchange and zero otherwise, the method of estimation used to obtain the coefficients was based on maximum likelihood. Results: The relationship between the variables of the Fleuriet model and the electoral result given by the exchange or maintenance of the party in the prefectures of the group under analysis. Limitation or implication of the research: It is noteworthy that such research does not allow generalizations, being a study with reduced scope considering only the city halls of the State of Rio de Janeiro that have financial information disclosed. Originality: showing that city halls with better financial situation tend not to change the party, which was observed in the group under analysis considering the election event in 2020.