Elaboration of a method for strategic analysis of the development of the Armed Forces

Abstract

Previous research has shown the need to increase the validity of the strategic decisions taken to determine (clarify) the strategy for developing the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the long term. It is necessary to elaborate a multi-criteria method for the strategic analysis of the development of the Armed Forces, based on statistical data obtained from the results of the defence reform and the defence review, minimising the use of expert judgments. To elaborate this method a conceptual approach was used, which combines choosing priority areas for developing the capabilities of the Armed Forces and a recursive way of organising the computing process. The process involved the creation of a system of indicators and performance criteria, their weight coefficients, and recursive and objective functions for constructing a mathematical model for synthesising the results of the strategic analysis of the development of the Armed Forces. The method of strategic analysis of the development of the Armed Forces using the recursive method of organising the computational process (SADAF-RW) produces objective assessments and the expected effect of implementing the chosen strategy for making strategic decisions. It is aimed at improving the state of readiness and capabilities of the Armed Forces in the long term, minimising the use of expert judgments. The method can be used in the elaboration of a scientific and methodological apparatus for assessing the effectiveness of strategic planning for the development of the Armed Forces since it is based on the principles of objectivity of assessments, consistency, and effectiveness of strategic decisions.