A decade after the escalation of the crisis: how probable is the membership of Ukraine in the European Union?

Abstract

At the last day of February 2022, Ukraine applied for membership in the European Union. This happened eight years after Russia has taken over Crimea, while engaging in the military support of the pro-Russian forces in Donbas region seceding from Ukraine. The country under military intervention was granted the European Union candidate status in June 2022, along with Moldova and Georgia, four months after the beginning of the Russian attack. Today, eight more countries are in the process of accession to the European Union, none of them being victim of an intervention. Two decades after the so-called Orange Revolution, and ten years after the initial Russian intervention, Ukraine has been stepping forward the European Union membership status. Exactly ten years have passed since the last enlargement of the bloc (in 2013, Croatia joined the Union), potentially signaling the most expressive period of the enlargement fatigue. In the era during which the skepticism for the enlargement is gaining momentum, it is of importance to explore whether Ukraine’s membership is truly acceptable, bearing in mind that the country is the victim of an ongoing intervention, being the first candidate country at war.