Political (de)modernization of Russia in the 1990s: turning events and models of conflict dynamics

Abstract

A set of theoretical models are presented to explain the complex political dynamics in Russia in the 1990s.The parametric model is used to analyze the fluctuations of the political system in a conditional space defined by two axes: the scale of collegial division of power (CDP) and the level of state success. Major turning events as closely related structural changes shift the state of the political system along bothaxes. Political modernization occurs when success and CDP rise, while demodernization is defined as a decline on one or both scales. The contours model combines structure and agency processes and takes into account two contours of political dynamics. In the large - socio-political - contour, turning events affect grassroot structures and processes related to objective conditions of life, subjective moods, and behavioral attitudes of broad groups of the population. In the small contour (interactions of political actors with their rivalry and conflicts) the same turning events change the balance of power of the main players in national politics. The general principles of the dynamics of the CDP, state success in their interrelation, as a result of turning events as a consequence of the interaction of actors in the small loop under the influence of processes in the large loop are formulated. A step-by-step model explaining the natural shift to authoritarianism on the basis of these principles and under special conditions is proposed. Through these models, the mechanisms of conflict dynamics and socio-political processes of the 1990s in Russia are presented, when the processes of political modernization began to be combined with and then replaced by trends of demodernization.