Economic crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemics: predictions, prognoses, and mitigation measures

Abstract

The approaches of economists, experts, and international expert organizations regarding the prediction of pandemics emergence and prognosis options of economic development in the crisis period are outlined. The paper substantiates the conclusion that despite the previous lessons, numerous predictions, and warnings of experts on the inevitability of economic crisis in the nearest future, the crisis was “unexpected” and the world, not only Ukraine, turned out to be unprepared again. Meanwhile, the so-called catalyzer of changes in the economy – the coronavirus pandemics – turned out to be an important factor. The pandemics has emphasized the systemic problems of both global development and the economy in Ukraine. It has displayed the need to take immediate efficient and real measures in healthcare and economic policy, including global cooperation to overcome its consequences, protection of the vulnerable segments of the population, and strengthening the security system of the countries in terms of operative response and prevention of similar events in the future. The official governmental programs and practices of countries in the world and Ukraine on the support of business and citizens being in difficult circumstances because of coronavirus are analyzed, and the peculiar trends of the process are determined with further definition of the most optimal and perspective examples (lessons) for further application in selection and implementation of mechanisms to fight the economic crisis and its consequences. The paper proves that each country has prepared and continues adjusting its model of anti-crisis activities to minimize economic losses from the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemics and global economic recession based on their priorities and available resources. The practice has shown that Ukrainian officials do not act within the distinct strategy and dwell on the mechanical reproduction of the steps of other countries in form of chaotic and unreasonable actions, and even more so – declarations. The estimations regarding the nature of the impact of the scales of economic activity restrictions on various economic sectors are constantly changing, preventing the opportunity of reliable prognoses because the pandemics hasn’t disappeared anywhere and uncertainty and threats are still essential.