Regional dimension of demographic sustainability of Ukraine in the war conditions

Abstract

The main features of the Ukraine’s demographic development before the full-scale invasion of Russia on 24.02.2022 have been identified: a constant significant reduction in the population number since 1993, caused primarily by a drop in the birth rate; intensive migration flows dominated by labor emigration; the appearance 1.5 million of internally displaced persons (IDP) since 2014; population aging; spread of depopulation from the east and northeast to the central regions of the country. It is estimated that the existing population of all of Ukraine at the beginning of 2022 was 39.6-40.1 million people, and without the territories occupied in 2014 – 33.5-34 million. The Russian-Ukrainian war became the main factor in the catastrophic aggravation of the demographic crisis in Ukraine and its regions. The war caused tens of thousands of deaths in Ukraine (civilian and military casualties), more than 14 million forced migrants, significant deformations of population structures: demo-reproductive, marriage-family, socio-economic, language-national, confessional, psycho-mental, and others. In addition to an increase in mortality and a decrease in the birth rate, the demographic consequences of the war are significant migration losses, deterioration of health and reduced life expectancy, decrease in economic activity, aggravation risk of social problems of veterans and IDPs reintegration. A demographic macro-zoning scheme has been developed, the criteria of which are the peculiarities of the course of military operations in certain territories, different periods of temporary occupation of Ukrainian territories, the structure of the population of the regions and its dynamics during wartime, the volume of forced migration. The main problems of the demographic development in the selected 5 macro-regions are formulated. The prospects of post-war demographic development and the main directions of socio-demographic policy, which will contribute to strengthening the demographic sustainability in Ukraine, are determined. The main ones are the demographic orientation of state and regional strategies and programs, the creation of conditions for the rapid return of forced migrants from abroad, the promotion of birth rates, the strengthening of the family institution, the socialization and social integration of war veterans, ensuring the competitiveness of older age groups in the labor market.