Inventory Management at the Enterprise in the Field of Probability Models

Abstract

The inventory management system is designed to continuously ensure the production activities of the enterprise with all necessary resources. The purpose of this study is to build a probabilistic model that can be proposed as a new inventory model, which establishes the relationship of period factors between the purchase of parts and the duration of their suitability, which affect inventory management. The research methods are based on a probabilistic approach using continuous distributions. Using the statistical method, point estimates were found for the studied parameters: mean and standard deviation. The histograms of relative frequencies between dates of two next purchases, volume of purchases of details and days of replacement of the fulfilled details are constructed. The critical areas for the studied parameters are illustrated. The values of the difference in days between the purchases of parts and the values of purchases of parts that meet the normal distribution of random variables with the appropriate parameters, as well as the critical values of the need for parts in the production process. The size of the part reserve, which corresponds to Erlang distribution, was found, depending on the established risk factor. For different values of this factor, the value of the difference in days between the purchases of parts, the size of purchases and the reserve of parts that correspond to the distributions of random variables, as well as the critical value of the need for parts in the production process to avoid downtime. Using the central limit theorem, it is shown that the purchase volume of parts and the volume of used parts are distributed according to the normal law. The study concludes that the probabilistic approach is the basis for forecasting inventory management in the enterprise, taking into account the risks associated with determining the optimal demand for raw materials in the enterprise