Analysis the capacity of grain export potential in Ukraine, possible reasons for the decrease and development trends

Abstract

The research presents an analysis of grain production and export capacity in Ukraine from 2010-2021. The major general factors that have recently affected the country's macroeconomic indicators and determined their potential for the decline have been destroyed and damaged infrastructure, a high level of military threat to crops, and massive internal and external migration of working-age people and businesses. Therefore, analysis of the availability and regularity of changes in the production reserve of these crops for domestic farm use and external consumers defines the relevance of the issue under study. The purpose of the study is to analyse the main indicators of grain crop production in Ukraine and to identify the factors that significantly influence their export potential. Using technical statistical methods, models have been developed to demonstrate possible fluctuations in the number of grain exports, considering the possible development of the country's economy. Using regression methods, the main factors influencing the export potential of grains were identified. These factors have been demonstrated to include, in particular, gross harvest volumes, availability and quantities of mineral and organic fertilisers, purchasing prices for produce, etc. A sustained long-term trend in grain exports over the past 10 years is demonstrated, but it has been established that Ukraine's significant export potential could change significantly. It could affect the economies of Ukraine's grain-importing countries. It is suggested that the adverse impact of the possible causes of Ukraine's declining export potential should be reduced through further development of technologies for growing, storing and transporting grain crops. The applied value of the results is to reduce uncertainty in the agricultural market for agro-industrial and foreign trade institutions by accounting for the impact of major grain production and export indicators