MODELING THE RELATIONSHIP OF STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN INDUSTRY AND THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS OF HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS ON THE DOMESTIC MARKETS OF THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA

Abstract

The relevance of identifying the relationship between structural shifts in industry and the impact of exports of high-tech products on the price and cost parameters of the domestic markets of the leading countries of the modern world economy is caused by the need for a comprehensive study of uncertainty and imbalance under the influence of structural-cyclical factors of market development. The development of relevant models that contribute to the identification and empirical justification of the desired relationship from the standpoint of partial equilibrium in the external and internal markets of the United States and China has both theoretical and applied significance in the context of the reindustrial turn based on convergent technologies. The purpose of modeling is to establish and substantiate the possible relationship between structural shifts in the industry and the impact of exports of high-tech products on the domestic markets of the United States and China. On the basis of previous experience, a complex econometric model has been developed, including computational-mathematical and regression-functional tools that allow analyzing dependent and factor variables within two successive cyclical waves of the current century. The interrelations of structural shifts in industry and the impact of exports of high-tech products on the domestic markets of the leading countries of the world industrial and technological rivalry – the USA and China – have been identified and substantiated. The modeling performed allows not only to identify comparative advantages at the country, national-economic level in terms of the impact of convergent technologies on the structure of production and exports in various cyclical variations, but also reflects the utility function for consumers of high-tech products in the domestic market of the United States and China. The dependences revealed as a result of modeling not only empirically, but also conceptually link the competition between manufacturers of high-tech products of each of the countries, alternately correlated as an exporting country and a global exporting country of the corresponding commodity groups. This creates a unique opportunity to show the multi-level relationship in the system "structural shifts - exports - domestic market" by comparing the dependent and factor variables of econometric and regression calculations. The results obtained correspond to the current practice in the world economy, revealing the desired relationships more consistently than when analyzing the competition of specific companies operating in the oligopolistic markets of the compared exporting countries.