INTERNATIONAL TRADE: CHALLENGES OF MODERN GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS

Abstract

This article is devoted to the study of the relationships between modern geopolitical conflicts and structural and dynamic changes in modern international trade. The author notes the ambiguous impact of conflicts on international exchange, as a result of which trade models undergo significant changes. Geopolitical conflicts, which have changed the conditions for further participation of countries in international trade, have become a serious challenge to the current openness of markets. It is the superposition of several successive shocks (the Chinese- American trade conflict, the pandemic and the risks of deglobalization) that make the scenarios for the development of international trade uncertain even in the foreseeable future, since the very impact of conflicts on trade has become wave and cumulative. Conflicts will ultimately not lead to a reduction in trade relations between countries, but will only reformat them and modify them, which will likely have a negative impact on trade costs that will be associated with the restructuring of global supply chains. International trade in the future will become more fragmented and regionalized, but in the medium term it will restore its pre-pandemic dynamics. Trade policy will gradually adapt to increasingly frequent geopolitical conflicts, gradually moving away from the main established principle of international trade – liberalization, but without abandoning it completely.