The Problem of Ensuring Representative Samples when Modeling the Market Value in the Regional Real Estate Market

Abstract

The article describes the problem of the lack of a universal adequate method for achieving the representativeness of a sample of real estate objects when modeling their market value.The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for creating a representative sample of real estate objects. This method can be used by specialists when working with inactive real estate markets in small cities and settlements. On the example of the market of land plots for individual housing in several cities of the Krasnodar krai, the analysis of the features of ensuring representativeness is carried out. There are opportunities and limitations of various tools for forming a representative sample.Materials and methods. When preparing the paper, the author studied the experience of forming representative samples accumulated by Russian and foreign scientists, considered in detail theoretical and practical approaches to analyzing the quality of the general set of market real estate objects. The methodology proposed in the article was tested on the example of the real estate market of the cities of Krasnodar, Goryachy Klyuch, Armavir. Тhe author used cartographic data, information from specialized portals of the real estate market and from the unified state register of rights. To achieve the objective, theoretical methods (comparative analysis, synthesis, generalization, analogy) and modelling were used.The main result of the paper is a reasonable method of radial circles, which allows you to select high-quality objects in a sample. Such land plots according to a certain significant price-forming factor in the city under consideration structurally correspond to the plots registered in the unified state real estate register. It is important to establish the conditions under which the sample becomes representative of the pricing factor associated with the location of the object. Тhe analytical material, stages and methods of selecting units in the sample presented in the article are of interest for the real estate researchers, analysts and experts, practitioners of state budgetary institutions engaged in state cadastral valuation.Conclusion. The method of radial circles can be further developed and used for other price-forming factors when modeling the market value of real estate.