Growth, Instability and Trend Analysis of Rice Production Indicators in Nigeria

Abstract

PURPOSE The research looked at the trends and decomposition of milled rice production indicators in Nigeria. RESEARCH METHOD It relied on secondary-time series data on rice output, yield, and cultivated area) obtained from the FAOSTAT database. The data ranged from 1960/61 to 2019/20 production cycle. The descriptive statistics, compound annual growth rate (CAGR), decomposition analysis, and Instability Index were used to analyze the data (II). FINDINGS The highest yield performance (2.38 tonnes/ha) came between 1978 and 1992. The cultivated area increased steadily during the study period. The study found that time trend significantly influenced changes in harvested area, yield, and rice production at 1%, with CAGR values of 15%, 1%, and 16% between 19660-61 and 2019-20, indicating some weaknesses in Nigeria's rice yield during this period. Increased rice harvested area effect was the primary source of growth during the period, according to the decomposition analysis (1961-2020). The area effect on rice production in Nigeria was found to be 58%, compared to 2% for the yield effect and 40% for the interaction, implying that increased output in Nigeria is still largely dependent on cultivated area expansion. During the study period, yield performance was the most volatile, with an instability index of 3.17%, while milled rice production and area under rice cultivation had instability indexes of 0.94% and 0.82%, respectively. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS The major limitation is lack of current data on rice production indicators up to 2022. ORIGINALITY/VALUE It employs decomposition techniques to assess the contributions of yield and cultivated area to rice output in Nigeria, and Cuddy Della Valle Index to determine the volatility of rice production indicators.