A Mathematical Characterisation of COVID-19 in Mauritius

Abstract

Since the appearance of the COVID-19 virus, a fair amount of work has been undertaken by researchers around the world to model its progression. It became clear from the start of the pandemic that its spread is affected by numerous factors and the extent to which it does vary within different communities. As a result, the necessary means and the range of measures used to effectively control the virus would vary from place to place. We have been witness to different approaches adopted around the world to curb the spread of the virus both in the short and the long term. Various metrics have been used to mathematically describe the effectiveness of the approaches used. In this work, an attempt is made at determining those metrics for Mauritius and comparing them with that of the rest of the world. We first parameterise mathematical models of the progression of COVID-19 in Mauritius as well as for numerous countries around the world but keep our focus primarily on Europe. These parameters are then compared and linked to the performance of the respective country in its management of the virus. In particular, an intriguing and counter-intuitive observation is made when the growth rate and the normalised ceiling value of the mathematical models are compared. We determined the initial growth rate and computed the basic reproduction number, which provided a ball park figure of the number of subjects a contagious individual was infecting on average at the onset of the pandemic in Mauritius. This value in turn allowed the determination of the percentage of the population needing immunity to stop the spread of the virus. Finally, to better benchmark the performance of Mauritius on the world stage, two other important metrics, the case fatality rate (CFR) and the crude mortality rate (CMR) are compared with a few selected countries.