Periodic analysis of scenic spot passenger flow based on combination neural network prediction model

Abstract

Abstract To prevent in a short time the rapid increase of tourists and corresponding traffic restriction measures’ lack in scenic areas, this study established a prediction model based on an improved convolutional neural network (CNN) and long- and short-term memory (LSTM) combined neural network. The study used this to predict the inflow and outflow of tourists in scenic areas. The model uses a residual unit, batch normalization, and principal component analysis to improve the CNN. The experimental results show that the model works best when batches’ quantity is 10, neurons’ quantity in the LSTM layer is 50, and the number of iterations is 50 on a workday; on non-working days, it is best to choose 10, 100, or 50. Using root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) as evaluation indicators, the inflow and outflow RMSEs of this study model are 82.51 and 89.80, MAEs are 26.92 and 30.91, NRMSEs are 3.99 and 3.94, and MAPEs are 1.55 and 1.53. Among the various models, this research model possesses the best prediction function. This provides a more accurate prediction method for the prediction of visitors’ flow rate in scenic spots. Meanwhile, the research model is also conducive to making corresponding flow-limiting measures to protect the ecology of the scenic area.