Heterogeneous Volatility Information Content for the Realized GARCH Modeling and Forecasting Volatility

Abstract

Abstract As the demand for accuracy in volatility modeling and forecasting increases, the literature tends to incorporate different volatility measures with heterogeneous information content to construct the hybrid volatility model. This study focuses on one of the popular hybrid volatility models: the Realized Generalized Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (Realized GARCH) and embeds various volatility measures, including the CBOE VIX, VIX1D, Realized Volatility, and Daily Range to examine their heterogeneous impact on the conditional volatility estimation and forecasting. To evaluate the impact of the volatility measures, we first construct a volatility response function. This involves calculating the difference in one-step-ahead conditional volatility forecasts that incorporate information from both return and volatility measures against the forecasts based on return innovations only. Subsequently, the variance share is calculated to evaluate its role in explaining future variations in the Realized GARCH. Our results show that among these four volatility measures, VIX is the most informative volatility. Although VIX1D is overemphasized by the literature, its significance in volatility forecasting remains substantial, confirming that risk-neutral volatility measures are generally more informative than physical measures. Finally, we also find that incorporating multiple risk-neutral volatility measures does not improve forecasting performance compared to using a single measure due to overlapping information.